Investing today feels harder than ever. The sheer volume of financial content—blogs, videos, podcasts—makes it challenging for the average investor to separate facts from opinion and find trustworthy sources.

This article isn’t about criticizing other financial voices—many are excellent. Instead, my goal is to provide context and clarity on what’s dominating headlines and how it might impact your investment decisions. Throughout the article, I’ll reference a few sources that I believe are trustworthy and worth your time if you are interested in learning more.

You’ve probably seen or heard statements like:

“The stock market is overvalued!” “We’re in a bubble!” “The crash is coming!”

Let’s break down these concerns and focus on what really matters to long-term investors. Below are a few common questions and investing topics we’ve discussed recently at Leading Edge Financial Planning. (You can also tune in to the Pilot Money Guys podcast on the same topic by clicking here.)

Are we at all-time market highs?

Yes! As of this writing, December 5, 2025, the AP News headline was: “The S&P 500 added 0.2% and finished just 0.3% shy of its record closing level, which was set in October. It had briefly topped the mark during the day, before paring its gain.”

However, this is not the right question. In fact, I would say it is practically irrelevant. All-time highs are normal in a healthy, growing stock market. Don’t let headlines about market highs (or lows) derail your strategy.

Another related question is, “Since we’re at all-time highs, should I hold off on putting new money into the stock market?”

Although stock markets can decline at any time, investors often miss out on investment growth trying to time the next bear market or correction. Timing the market is a losing game—successful investors know luck plays a bigger role than skill in short-term predictions.

In fact, if you want to give timing the S&P 500 a try, click here to play the Market Timing Game. In the simulation, you are given a 3-year market period from sometime in history (data starts January 1, 1950 and goes through the most recent market price, as prices are updated daily). You start fully invested in the market and can trade out of (and into) the market if you feel like the market will fall (or rise). The goal is to see if you can beat the market index returns.  

When I played the game, I sold after eleven market highs and then subsequently missed out on the next eight hoping the stock market would crash so I could re-deploy my virtual cash back into the market. Sound familiar?!?

Another great story about why market highs are a distraction to your long-term investing strategy is one written by one of my favorite bloggers, Ben Carlson. He wrote an entertaining article in his blog, A Wealth of Commons Sense, about a fictional character named Bob. Bob is the world’s worst market time. Somehow, Bob ONLY invests his money at stock market highs starting in 1970. What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? – A Wealth of Common Sense

In case you don’t have time to check out the article, here are a few of the lessons from Bob’s wild investment journey from Ben Carlson’s article:

1. “Bob ended up being a successful investor despite his terrible market timing because he was a diligent saver and planned out his savings in advance. He never wavered on his savings goals and increased the amount he saved over time.
2. Bob allowed his investments to compound through the decades by never selling out of the market over his 40+ years of investing. He gave himself a really long runway.
3. Long-term thinking has been rewarded in the past and unless you think the world or innovation is coming to an end, it should be rewarded in the future.
4. Losses are part of the deal when investing in stocks. How you react to those losses is one of the biggest determinants of your investment performance.”

So, what, if anything, do new market highs mean for investors in 2026?

• Use caution for the desire to buy speculative investments solely due to stock price increase. The same feeling will lead you to sell when the price declines.
  • A record high is just one milestone in the market’s long journey.
• Disciplined long-term investing beats chasing clickbait headlines and succumbing to FOMO (fear of missing out) investing.
• Stay diversified and have a plan to rebalance your portfolio.
• Many investors fall into the trap of trying to predict the markets’ ups and downs. This often leads to greater losses than the corrections themselves.
  • Famous Fidelity investor Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in all the corrections combined.” 
    
    

Will the stock market go down next year?

The corollary to the “market highs” discussion is the following statement: “Since the market has reached all-time highs, clearly it will go down next year!” (See my results to the S&P 500 timing game previously mentioned.) However, the answer to this question is an easy one—yes! The stock market will most likely decline in 2026 at some point within the calendar year. In fact, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the S&P 500 averages an intra-year decline of 14.1% annually. Despite this, annual (calendar year) returns were positive in 34 of 46 years from 1980 to 2024.

(Intra-year drops refer to the largest peak-to-trough decline during the year.)